dp_2025_02_01 - 65
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OPERATOR
DELIVERING VITAL NEWS
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would produce an additional 484 million lbs of cheese in
2025, just a little above the pace needed to match longrun
demand growth and rebuild inventory. While this
would still be bearish, it is a much more balanced view of
the market than many are thinking.
THE UNKNOWN
The increase in capacity might not be the biggest
issue in the cheese market in 2025. Bird flu in cows
(and people), trade disputes, government purchasing
programs, drought, Chinese demand, GLP-1 inhibitors,
a new TikTok trend or something completely out of left
field could pop up and drive the narrative in a completely
different direction.
For argument's sake, I've laid out the most reasonable
bullish counter arguments I can make, but there are
rebuttals to most of my points. It is possible that the
expansion in capacity plays out just as bearish as the
industry excepts. Or it could play out along the lines I've
laid out, which would still lean bearish, but it wouldn't be
anywhere near as bearish as some are suggesting.
Editor's note: This material should be construed
as market commentary and not intended to refer to
any particular trading strategy, promotional element
or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of
StoneX Financial Inc. ( " SFI " ) or StoneX Markets LLC
( " SXM " ). The trading of derivatives such as futures,
options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or " swaps "
may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading
involves substantial risk of loss. Past results are not
necessarily indicative of future results.
Nate Donnay is the Director of Dairy Market Insight at
StoneX Financial Inc. and has been applying
his expertise in statistical analysis to the international
and US dairy markets since 2005.
The Operations Update newsletter
provides information on
production, engineering, packaging,
maintenance and sanitation to help
operations, engineering and plantlevel
management make informed
decisions.
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dp_2025_02_01
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of dp_2025_02_01
dp_2025_02_01 - Intro
dp_2025_02_01 - FC1
dp_2025_02_01 - FC2
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